Market trend of steel pipe
Different from the collective strength of assets last year, since the second quarter of this year, the degree of market differentiation of welded steel pipe has been significantly aggravated, the trend of commodities and stocks, the trend of different sectors, the trend of different varieties of the same sector or the trend of differentiation between upstream and downstream. As for the reasons for the divergence of current price trend and the operation and trading strategies to be selected in the later period, the following analysis is made:
From the perspective of global liquidity, the expectation of tightening the margin of monetary policy on the aggregate has been basically formed, and the deterioration of the structural relationship leads to the change of risk appetite of overseas funds, which may mean that the upward momentum of asset prices is weakening, and the short-term entry into the “Rish-off” mode, which has been reflected in A shares and commodities. In addition, judging from a series of recent meetings at the macro policy level, inflation pressure seems to have eased, while the pressure on economic growth of hot dipped galvanized steel pipe has gradually emerged, and the domestic top management has shifted its focus to long-term goals such as common prosperity and narrowing the gap. The work plan on preventing and defusing major financial risks also reminds people of the systemic impact that “Evergrande incident” may bring to the financial market, which will aggravate the volatility of the financial market. The more things the policy should take into account, the faster the style switch will be and the higher the degree of market differentiation will be. Therefore, it is necessary to grasp the structural changes through deeper research. Black industrial chain internal differentiation performance is also more obvious. In general, there is a high correlation between the prices of finished products such as round steel pipe and iron ore, coking coal and coke, which is related to the cost structure, pricing method and industry concentration. Coal prices have been rising this year as a result of tight supply, but the impact on steel prices does not seem to be very big, because small steel pipe suppliers are strictly limited to production, and most large mills have long coal companies. However, most iron ore is imported, which is mainly based on index monthly pricing and port spot pricing, so the steel price is more sensitive to the change of iron ore price.
Snail ore ratio after a year of oscillation, has an upward breakthrough recently. This change of fundamentals on the one hand from our country is rising iron ore self-sufficiency, on the other hand, the steel industry concentration under the consolidation of bao Wu steel is rapidly increasing, iron ore purchasing bargaining power is expected to surge. Domestic structural steel pipe factories and overseas iron ore giants stock trends are also reflecting this change in expectations.