The trend of rebar

Season production limit
At the end of June, Anhui and Gansu provinces clearly put forward the plan of reducing the capacity of galvanized steel pipe in the second half of the year, Jiangxi, Shandong, Jiangsu and other provinces also carried out in July, superimposed from the middle of May, the profit per ton of steel fell rapidly again, the operating rate of blast furnace and electric furnace continued to fall, the national crude steel output in the past four months declined substantially. Data showed that for the week ended October 15, the BF operating rate in Hebei and the whole country was 45.40% and 54.01%, respectively, a decrease of 1-2 percentage points compared with September. The utilization rate of electric furnace capacity in short-process and long-process steel mills was 48.17% and 66.06%, respectively, down 3.18 and 2.27 percentage points compared with mid-September. According to this, crude steel production in October will be further reduced to about 70 million tons of the level.

Construction rebar steel work reinforcement in conncrete structure of building

From the perspective of the policy of reducing the output of cold rolled steel pipe, the cumulative output of crude steel from January to September last year was 781.5930 million tons, and the cumulative output of crude steel from January to September this year was 805.8850 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 24.2920 million tons. Under the condition of annual flat control, if the output of October drops to 70 million tons, it will decrease by 22.2020 million tons year-on-year. That would roughly offset the cumulative increase in production over the previous nine months. From November to December, the supply of hot rolled steel pipe will be restricted by the “2+26” urban heating season production limit and non-regular environmental protection production limit in the early stage of the Winter Olympics and other policies, so that the flat control of crude steel production will be basically determined.

A turning point has been reached in the housing market
Since the beginning of this year, the real estate regulation has been intensified. The growth rate of real estate investment, new housing construction area, commercial housing sales area and land purchase area have all fallen from the record high since February. The inflection point signal of the real estate market is further clear. In terms of infrastructure construction, from January to September, the national investment in fixed assets (excluding rural households) was 39,7827 billion yuan, up by 7.3% year on year, in which the investment in infrastructure (excluding the production and supply of electricity, heat, gas and water) grew by 1.5% year on year, and the growth rate of round steel pipe continued to decline. The issuance of local government bonds increased slightly, but the cumulative issuance amount from January to September was still less than the same period in 2020. The fourth quarter may not have a substantial increase, the decline of infrastructure growth is difficult to obtain effective support.