Steel price runs fluctuated
Judging from the progress of fiscal expenditure, the expansion of fiscal expenditure this year is weaker than that of last year. With domestic economic growth of galvanized steel pipe slowing down and growth pressure gradually emerging, the central government has mentioned more and more “cross-cyclical adjustment” of fiscal policy, and the expectation of fiscal policy in the fourth quarter has increased. Since August, the issuance of new local government special bonds has accelerated significantly. This includes 488.4 billion yuan in August and 523.1 billion yuan in September. By the end of September, a total of 2,366.1 billion yuan of new local government bonds had been issued, 64.82 percent of the budgeted target.
However, the expansion of hidden local government debt remains tightly controlled and quality infrastructure projects are limited, which may limit the ability of fiscal power to boost economic growth. Downward pressure on the growth of domestic consumption and investment is increasing. We need to support investment and consumption by reducing financing costs for steel pipe manufacturers, especially small and medium-sized enterprises. Although short-term exports still have some support, the peak of external demand is approaching, and the downward pressure on manufacturing investment is increasing, so forward-looking hedging is needed. The sharp rise of commodity prices still forms a certain constraint on the overall easing of liquidity, short-term monetary policy will be mainly structural easing.
In terms of steel import and export, the volume of Chinese steel exports for round steel pipe in September was 4.92 million tons, down 2.7% from the previous month; Imports were 1.256 million tons, up 15.4% from the previous month. From January to September, China exported 53.024 million tons of steel, an increase of 12.6443 million tons, an increase of 31.3%; The accumulated imports of steel reached 10.716 million tons, a decrease of 4.354 million tons year-on-year, down 28.9%. On the whole, under the background of supply compression, steel exports will further decline, the domestic market steel supply reduction, dual focal cost support is strong, domestic price has a certain support, inhibit steel exports, and the overseas steel market supply and demand gradually loose.
From January to September, the cumulative real estate investment increased by 8.78% and 10.21% year-on-year in September. The new construction area decreased by 4.46% year on year and 13.54% year on year in September, which will affect the future demand for rectangular steel tube. Housing construction area increased 7.94% year on year, and fell 10.03% year on year in September. In the past 3 months, the construction area has declined significantly compared with the previous year, and the sales area in the past 2 months is also in a declining state. The overall data is general, but better than the absolute level, so there is some resilience in the later demand.